The Gulf of Mexico has the highest risk of oil spills, which could have catastrophic local and global effects. This maritime area is three times the size of London.
The energy market has been very unstable over the past year. A gas crisis was avoided this year thanks to Europe’s warmer-than-average winter, but the outlook for the following winter is uncertain given the ongoing instabilities. One port in Qatar is the origin of more than 20% of the world’s exports of liquefied natural gas.
A new research paper pinpoints the location of what the authors call a “high vulnerability zone,” where an oil spill could cause liquified natural gas export facilities and desalination plants on the coast to be completely shut down for several days. (Tankers cannot travel through deep oil slicks when there has been an oil spill. Additionally, heavily polluted water sources are incompatible with the regular operation of desalination plants, which rely on the intake of seawater.) The paper was published on January 12 in the journal Nature Sustainability by a team of researchers at the The Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, the University of Louvain, and the University of Southern California (USC) Viterbi School of Engineering.
According to the researchers, this shutdown could compromise containment efforts, significantly disrupt the global gas supply, and result in an unprecedented water shortage for people living on the Qatari Peninsula.
The researchers assert that it is critical to be aware of this vulnerability. In the following five years, it is anticipated that Qatar’s export capacity will rise by roughly 64%. The global energy supply chain will therefore continue to depend on this important port. The researchers also point out that the rising number of tanker accidents in the Gulf raises some worries, particularly in light of the potential consequences for vital coastal infrastructures that export a crucial source of energy for the planet and guarantee the security of desalinated water for one of the driest climates on earth.
In order to identify specific offshore areas of the Qatar Peninsula that are vulnerable to oil spills and evaluate potential disruptions to the global supply of liquid natural gas, the paper employs advanced numerical modeling to corollary maritime data transports, atmospheric circulation, ocean currents, waves, and seafloor topographic map data collected over a period of five years.
The study contends that, rather than the numerous oil rigs in the northern part of the Peninsula, tankers passing through this area pose the greatest risk for oil spills. According to the researchers, should there be an oil spill here, Qatar would have a short window of time to contain it before it spread to the main desalination plant and facility for exporting liquefied gas in the nation. According to the authors, these occurrences may result in delays or even a complete shutdown of the desalination plants for the day, forcing the country to rely more heavily on its meager freshwater supply and driving up the price of liquified natural gas.
To put the scope of the problem in perspective, experts estimate that the biggest Qatari tankers carrying liquid natural gas can heat London for a full week.
In order to provide early warning for spills and more accurately model their evolution, the study promotes increased remote sensing using satellite and airborne images in the Gulf’s most vulnerable regions. According to the researchers, the aforementioned steps are essential for directing mitigation efforts to avoid adverse local and global effects.
The Middle East’s susceptibility to environmental and climatic hazards is largely underestimated, according to co-author Essam Heggy of the USC Arid Climate and Water Research Center. “Major oil spill containment has always been difficult, but in the shallow waters of the Gulf, where any intervention must take into account the intricate circulation currents, a harsh operational environment, and the presence of highly-sensitive ecosystems on which three million people rely for drinking water, it is even more difficult.” He added, “In order to address this vulnerability, I hope significant resources are allocated.”
Co-author Emmanuel Hanert of the University of Louvain stated, “The vulnerability of the Gulf to oil spills could exacerbate both the local water crisis in Gulf nations and the global energy crisis.” He added, “A significant oil spill poses a threat to the security of both water and energy, which are intricately linked. We identified sea areas in the Gulf where an oil spill would pose the greatest threat to desalination and liquefied natural gas export facilities. The goal of satellite surveillance should be to identify oil spills as soon as possible to lessen their effects.”